Climate-driven coffee price surges hitting Americans’ wallets expose years of failed energy and trade policies, with the Biden-era inflationary spiral now forcing families to abandon daily routines while the cost of a morning cup climbs 47% in just five years.
Story Snapshot
- Coffee prices jumped 18.3% year-over-year in January 2026, with a staggering 47% increase over five years, driven by climate disruptions and Biden-era inflation
- Americans are abandoning café visits and switching to cheaper alternatives as median hot coffee hits $3.61 and cold brews reach $5.55
- The Trump administration removed coffee tariffs imposed in 2025, but prices remain stubbornly high due to global supply shortages from weather extremes in Brazil, Vietnam, and Indonesia
- Small business owners like Chicago roaster Nikki Bravo raised prices 15% just to survive, while bipartisan lawmakers push for relief measures
Climate and Inflation Create Perfect Storm for Coffee Drinkers
Coffee prices in the United States surged 18.3% year-over-year by January 2026, according to Consumer Price Index data, marking a 47% increase over five years.
Median hot coffee prices reached $3.61 in December, while cold brews reached $5.55, according to data from the Toast payment platform. The United States imports 99% of its coffee supply outside Hawaii and Puerto Rico, relying heavily on Brazil, Colombia, and Vietnam.
Climate disruptions, including droughts, heat waves, and frost in these key producing nations, decimated global inventories to 20-year lows, creating supply tightness that persists despite policy interventions.
Years of steadily climbing coffee prices have some in this country of coffee lovers upending their habits by nixing café visits, switching to cheaper brews or foregoing it altogether.
READ MORE: https://t.co/UoTVPGtd57 pic.twitter.com/oKqEnv9Zcv
— WGN TV News (@WGNNews) February 15, 2026
Trump Tariffs Reversed, but Prices Remain Elevated
The Trump administration imposed tariffs on coffee imports in July 2025—40% on Brazilian beans, 20% on Vietnamese beans, and 10% on Colombian beans—temporarily stalling shipments as producers withheld exports.
Bipartisan lawmakers, including Rep. Don Bacon and Rep. Ro Khanna, introduced legislation to repeal the tariffs, citing grocery cost pressures on working families.
The administration ultimately removed the tariffs later in 2025, yet prices stayed elevated through early 2026. Ground coffee cost $9.14 per pound in September 2025, a 41% jump from the prior year, demonstrating that weather-driven supply shortages—not policy alone—are the primary culprit behind the sustained price spike.
Small Businesses Squeezed Between Rising Costs and Consumer Limits
Nikki Bravo, owner of Momentum Coffee in Chicago, raised drink prices 15% after her bean costs climbed steeply, telling reporters, “We couldn’t continue to eat it.”
Small roasters face impossible choices: absorb margin-crushing costs, pass increases to customers already cutting back, or compromise on quality by switching to cheaper commercial blends.
Sergio Avilán Britto, a coffee sourcing consultant, noted specialty roasters have shifted to lower-grade beans since 2021 as Arabica futures tripled. This reality illustrates how inflation erodes not just household budgets but the entrepreneurial backbone of American commerce, forcing business owners to choose between survival and quality.
Americans Rewrite Daily Routines to Combat Skyrocketing Costs
Every day, Americans are abandoning longstanding coffee habits as prices rise beyond their tolerance for discretionary spending. Former daily café visitors now skip their morning stops, brew cheaper alternatives at home, or quit coffee entirely—a behavioral shift reflecting broader frustrations with inflation’s assault on working-class routines.
The persistence of elevated prices despite tariff removal underscores a troubling pattern: climate-driven commodity shocks, compounded by years of fiscal mismanagement under the Biden administration, have left families vulnerable to global supply disruptions.
With La Niña weather patterns threatening further droughts in Brazil, relief appears distant, leaving consumers to adapt to what industry experts call a “new pricing era” for this staple of American culture.
Soaring coffee prices rewrite some Americans’ daily routines https://t.co/kvXwFaYyee
— Policy Wire (@policy_wire) February 15, 2026
The coffee price crisis reveals how external supply shocks collide with domestic policy failures, hitting hardworking Americans who simply want to start their day without breaking the bank.
While the Trump administration acted decisively to remove counterproductive tariffs, the underlying climate and inventory challenges demand long-term solutions, including investment in climate-resistant coffee varieties and diversified supply chains.
Until then, families will continue to absorb the costs of a volatile global market, made worse by years of inflationary overspending that weakened the dollar and squeezed purchasing power across every aisle of the grocery store.
Sources:
U.S. Coffee Prices Spike Due to Tariffs and Poor Weather – The Business Journal
Coffee Buyers Adapt to New Pricing Era – Intelligence Coffee
Soaring Coffee Prices Rewrite Some Americans’ Daily Routines – Butler Eagle
Commodities Spotlight – UBS Asset Management
Inflation: Beef, Coffee, Bananas Food Prices CPI – CBS News
